For the first time in a decade, the 2026-27 Tasmanian State Budget presents a somewhat better picture of the outlook for Tasmania’s public finances than its predecessor.  That’s largely due to windfall revenue gains, particularly from the Federal Government in the form of upward revisions to Tasmania’s share of revenue from the GST and specific purpose grants. But the Tasmanian Government hasn’t spent any of those, and it has actually made ‘policy decisions’ which, if realized, will improve the budget ‘bottom line’ by $605 million over the five years to 2029-30, enabling it to foreshadow a cash surplus and a small reduction in net debt, in 2029-30.

Of course, the Government needs to deliver the forecast ‘operational efficiency’ savings foreshadowed in this Budget – something it hasn’t been able to do in the past. And it will need to do more in next year’s and subsequent Budgets if it is to meet the ambitious longer-term fiscal strategy targets articulated in this one. But at least it has made a start.

2026-27 Budget analysis