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SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy


Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

Widening the Gap – An Intergenerational Lens on Wealth Inequality in Australia

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy | 12th December 2024

Wealth is inevitably more unequally distributed than income. And inequality in the distribution of wealth has increased more than inequality in the distribution of income in Australia (as in many other countries) over the past two decades or so. But what’s particularly striking, at least in Australia, is how inequality in the distribution of wealth […]


How Victoria became one of Australia’s ‘poor states’

Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 25th November 2024

Over the past two-and-a-half decades Victoria has gone from being one of Australia’s most prosperous states to being one of its three poorest, on most indicators, and its most heavily indebted. This article, published by the Australian Financial Review on 25th November 2024, explains how and why.


Elections and economies – the US and Australia

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 23rd November 2024

Donald Trump’s clear (although not overhelming) victory in November’s  US Presidential election, combined with the Republicans’ capture of both Houses of the US Congress, puts him in a strong position to implement his agenda. The combination of swingeing increases in tariffs, the deportation of between 1.3 and 8 million migrant workers, a futher increase in […]


“Hiding in Plain Sight” – $180 billion of spending over four years.

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, Topics | 11th November 2024

The Australian Financial Review‘s Economics correspondent Michael Read has an article about the increasing propensity of Federal Governments of both political persuasions to obscure on-going spending in a category officially termed ‘investments in financial assets for policy purposes’, which in the Federal Budget Papers is the difference between the ‘headline’ budget balance – which despite […]


Challenges and Opportunities for Australian Agriculture

Commodities, The Australian Economy | 1st October 2024

Australia’s, and Queensland’s, agriculture sector has a bright future – if it can successfully confront and overcome a series of challenges, some of which are common to farmers everywhere, some of which are unique to Australia or Queensland. Saul’s presentation to AgForce Queensland’s annual Agriculture Industry Conference at the Brisbane Royal International Conention Centre on […]


‘Super for Housing’ – a Thoroughly Bad Idea

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy, Topics | 19th September 2024

Saul’s analysis of the Liberal-National Coalition’s proposal to allow people to withdraw up to 40% of their superannnuation savings (up to a maximum of $100,000) in order to purchase a first home (subject to a requirement that the amount withdrawn be re-invested in superannuation when that home is sold), commissioned by the Super Members’ Council, published […]


What’s happening in the economy – nationally and in Tasmania

Economic Policies, Tasmania, The Australian Economy | 13th September 2024

Saul’s presentation to the Governance Institute of Australia’s Tasmanian Governance Forum on 13th September 2024, providing some perspectives on recent developments in the Australian economy and the outlook for interest rates – and also the Tasmanian economy, the Independent Review of Tasmania’s State Finances and the 2024-25 Budget presented the day before.


All about inflation

Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2024

Saul Eslake: Australia’s recent inflation experience, what caused it, and how the Government and the Reserve Bank are responding to it


SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


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VIDEO

Most Recent Multimedia


TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


Australian Minister for Housing, the Hon. Clare O'Neill MP on ABC Q&A, September 2024

“We are lucky as a State to have an economist of your calibre willing to readily make yourself available to give us a clea r perception of where we are at and the direction we need to go for a better future”
Diplomatic Representative, August 2024

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


Widening the Gap – An Intergenerational Lens on Wealth Inequality in Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy
12th December 2024


How Victoria became one of Australia’s ‘poor states’
Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy
25th November 2024


Elections and economies – the US and Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy
23rd November 2024


Opening Statement to Senate Select Committee on the Tasmanian Freight Equalization Scheme
Economic Policies, Tasmania
13th November 2024


“Hiding in Plain Sight” – $180 billion of spending over four years.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, Topics
11th November 2024


‘Tasmanian Money Matters’ – Tasmania’s Economy and Public Finances
Economic Policies, Tasmania
3rd October 2024


Challenges and Opportunities for Australian Agriculture
Commodities, The Australian Economy
1st October 2024


Negative Gearing
Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation
26th September 2024


Will Anthony Albanese succeed where Bill Shorten failed in making changes to the taxation treatment of property investment?
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Taxation
26th September 2024


‘Super for housing’ is a souped-up first home owners grants scheme – and it won’t help any more than first home owners grants have
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
24th September 2024


‘Super for Housing’ – a Thoroughly Bad Idea
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy, Topics
19th September 2024


A ‘path back to surplus’ for the Tasmanian Budget? Not really
Tasmania
17th September 2024


What’s happening in the economy – nationally and in Tasmania
Economic Policies, Tasmania, The Australian Economy
13th September 2024


LINKS

Useful Links


Below is a list of links I’ve found useful under the following broad topics

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