SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy


Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

‘The Big Picture’

Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 22nd June 2024

Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.


Other central banks are cutting rates, why isnt the RBA?

Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 13th June 2024

Saul spoke with ABC Radio Sydney’s “Mornings” Presenter Hamish MacDonald about why the Reserve Bank is unlikely to follow the Bank of Canada or the European Central Bank in cutting interest rates any time soon, and also about the possible consequences of Australia ‘walking away’ from the emissions reduction targets to which it committed under the Paris Climate Accords.


Interest Rate and Inflation – Where to now?

Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 8th June 2024

Saul Eslake’s podcast of a wide-ranging discussion about inflation, interest rates and other economic topics with Ben Law, the “Financial Bloke” and host of The Agri Coach “Wealth and Wisdom podcast”. This discussion was published on 8th June but recorded on 11th April – so it predates the most recent Federal Budget, the latest unemployment figures from Australia and the US (both of which now have a 4 handle on them, and the interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank in the first week of June.


The pros and cons of cutting immigration

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 7th June 2024

In the first week of June 2024, Saul Eslake spoke with the host of the ABC’s “News Daily” podcast, Samantha Hawley, about the pros and cons of proposals which have been made by both the Labor Government and the Liberal-National Opposition to cut Australia’s immigration intake (the latter by a lot more than the former).


A post-Budget conversation

Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 16th May 2024

On 15th May, I joined Professors Peter Robinson and Peter Van Onselen of the University of Western Australia for a discussion about the 2024-25 Federal Budget presented the previous day. A podcast of that conversation is here:   https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/peter-van-onselen/episodes/Analysing-the-budget-e2jngdd


The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 15th May 2024

Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers presented his third budget to the Australian Parliament on Tuesday 14th May. Here’s my assessment – there are some things to like about it (such as the cost-of-living relief), and some things to be skeptical about (such as many, though not all, of the things being funded under the ‘Future Made […]


Upcoming Federal Budget with Laura Jayes

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 13th May 2024

I was interviewed by Sky News Australia’s Laura Jayes about the upcoming 2024-25 Federal Budget and its potential impact (upwards and donwnwards) in inflation, and about the perversion of the system for distributing revenue from Australia’s GST to the states and territories at the behest of Australia’s richest state, Western Australia. The interview can be […]


Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget

Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 11th May 2024

Fellow independent economist Nikki Hutley and I were interviewed by the ABC’s Fran Kelly for her Saturday Extra program on 11th May about expectations for the 2024-25 Federal Budget to be presented by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on the evening of Tuesday 14th May. Here’s a link to a recording of the segment: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/saturdayextra/budget-panel/103832416


SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


Request Speaking Engagement

WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


Have we passed ‘peak China’? (and might a big fall in the RMB be on the horizon?)
Asian Economies, The Global Economy
11th July 2024


‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy
22nd June 2024


ATO’s Latest Taxation Statistics – June 2024
News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation
20th June 2024


Other central banks are cutting rates, why isnt the RBA?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
13th June 2024


Interest Rate and Inflation – Where to now?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
8th June 2024


The pros and cons of cutting immigration
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
7th June 2024


A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
16th May 2024


The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
15th May 2024


Upcoming Federal Budget with Laura Jayes
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
13th May 2024


Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
11th May 2024


The WA GST deal – the worst public policy decision of the 21st century thus far – Address to the National Press Club
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies
8th May 2024


The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy
25th April 2024


‘A distinctive part of life in Australia’ The Declining Dream of Homeownership
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
17th April 2024


Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics
16th April 2024


VIDEO

Recent Presentations


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TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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