The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
The Rise of Grain-Fed Beef – and What Comes Next
Commodities, The Australian Economy | 23rd September 2026Saul’s presentation to the Australian Lot Feeders Association (ALFA)’s BeefEx 2026 Conference at the Gold Coast Convention & Exhibition Centre on 23rd September 2026.
Do the Best Days for Australia’s Resources Sector Still Lie Ahead? – the 46th George Fisher Lecture
Commodities, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 21st August 2026It was an honour to have been invited to give the 46th Sir George Fisher Lecture to a dinner hosted by the North Queensland Branch of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy in Townsville on 21st August. Sir George Fisher was a giant of the Australian mining industry, in particular as General Manager of […]
The World has Changed – Geo-political Pressures and What They Mean for Australian Manufacturing
Economic Policies, Globalization, Productivity, The Australian Economy | 10th June 2026Saul’s presentation to the National Manufacturing Workforce Forum, hosted by the Manufacturing Industry Skills Alliance, at the State Library of Victoria in Melbourne, on 10th June 2026.
Australia’s Economic and Political Outlook
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 4th June 2026Saul Eslake’s presentation to Anglicare’s annual CEO Forum in Melbourne on 4th June 2026. Not much politics in it, but a focus on the tax reform proposals presented in the 2026-27 Federal Budget, and other ideas about longer-term tax reform in Australia.
The 2026-27 Australian Government Budget – an Assessment
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 13th May 2026Saul’s assessment of the 2026-27 Australian Government Budget, presented by Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers on 12th May 2026.
Ominous warnings from sharp falls in business and consumer confidence
Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16th April 2026Op-ed article published in the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers on 16th April 2026. . The published version of the op-ed is here: https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have-20260415-p5zo0r.html or here: https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have-20260415-p5zo0r.html
The Impact of the Middle East Fuel Crisis on Australia’s Civil Engineering Construction Sector
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 16th April 2026Report commissioned by the Civil Constructors’ Federation of Australia on the potential impact of the Middle East fuel crisis on Australia’s civil engineering construction sector, including some suggestions as to how governments could ameliorate at least some of those consequences.
Federal Budget 2026: Capital Gain Tax Reform and Western Australia’s GST Share
Australian Federal Budget, Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Economic Video, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 2nd April 2026Saul Eslake talks to Sky’s Laura Jayes about the possibility that the upcoming Federal Budget may include changes to the capital gains tax regime – and why the Government should (but won’t) stop giving so much money to Western Australia.