The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
Ominous warnings from sharp falls in business and consumer confidence
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 16th April 2026Op-ed article published in the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers on 16th April 2026. . The published version of the op-ed is here: https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have-20260415-p5zo0r.html or here: https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have-20260415-p5zo0r.html
The Impact of the Middle East Fuel Crisis on Australia’s Civil Engineering Construction Sector
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 16th April 2026Report commissioned by the Civil Constructors’ Federation of Australia on the potential impact of the Middle East fuel crisis on Australia’s civil engineering construction sector, including some suggestions as to how governments could ameliorate at least some of those consequences.
Federal Budget 2026: Capital Gain Tax Reform and Western Australia’s GST Share
Australian Federal Budget, Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Economic Video, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 2nd April 2026Saul Eslake talks to Sky’s Laura Jayes about the possibility that the upcoming Federal Budget may include changes to the capital gains tax regime – and why the Government should (but won’t) stop giving so much money to Western Australia.
Interim Report to the ACT Legislative Assembly Select Committee on the Fiscal Sustainability of the ACT
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 2nd March 2026At the beginning of last month Saul was engaged by the Australian Capital Territory’s Legislative Assembly as a Special Advisor to the Select Committee on the Fiscal Sustainability of the ACT, which was established in December last year. Saul’s interim report was presented to the Committee on 27th February. . The Final Report is due […]
Submission to the Productivity Commission’s Inquiry into The Worst Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century Thus Far (aka “the WA GST deal”).
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 5th January 2026The Productivity Commission has been asked to inquire into what I’ve called The Worst (Australian) Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century Thus Far – namely, the Orwellianly-titled Treasury Laws Amendment (Making Sure Every State and Territory Gets Their Fair Share of GST) Act 2018, legislated by the Morrison Government (with the support of the […]
The Australian Economy in 2025-26: Presentation to Economics Teachers
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 24th November 2025Saul Eslake’s presentation to the Victorian Commercial Teachers’ Association “CommView 2025” conference in Melbourne on 25th November 2025. In addition to discussing various aspects of the Australian economy in 2025-26 it also looks at: the very different implications for Australia, compared with other ‘advanced’ economies, of the rapid growth and industrialization of China over the […]
Global Megatrends, the Australian Economy and Residential Property Markets
Economic Policies, Globalization, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 31st October 2025Saul Eslake’s presentation to a luncheon hosted by the Urban Development Institute of Australia (Western Australian Division) at Crown Perth on 31st October 2025.
Revenue-raising and tax reform
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 29th October 2025Saul Eslake’s presentation to the Australia Institute’s “Revenue Summit” held at Parliament House, Canberra, on 29th October 2025