The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
Widening the Gap – An Intergenerational Lens on Wealth Inequality in Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy | 12th December 2024Wealth is inevitably more unequally distributed than income. And inequality in the distribution of wealth has increased more than inequality in the distribution of income in Australia (as in many other countries) over the past two decades or so. But what’s particularly striking, at least in Australia, is how inequality in the distribution of wealth […]
How Victoria became one of Australia’s ‘poor states’
Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 25th November 2024Over the past two-and-a-half decades Victoria has gone from being one of Australia’s most prosperous states to being one of its three poorest, on most indicators, and its most heavily indebted. This article, published by the Australian Financial Review on 25th November 2024, explains how and why.
Elections and economies – the US and Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 23rd November 2024Donald Trump’s clear (although not overhelming) victory in November’s US Presidential election, combined with the Republicans’ capture of both Houses of the US Congress, puts him in a strong position to implement his agenda. The combination of swingeing increases in tariffs, the deportation of between 1.3 and 8 million migrant workers, a futher increase in […]
“Hiding in Plain Sight” – $180 billion of spending over four years.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, Topics | 11th November 2024The Australian Financial Review‘s Economics correspondent Michael Read has an article about the increasing propensity of Federal Governments of both political persuasions to obscure on-going spending in a category officially termed ‘investments in financial assets for policy purposes’, which in the Federal Budget Papers is the difference between the ‘headline’ budget balance – which despite […]
Challenges and Opportunities for Australian Agriculture
Commodities, The Australian Economy | 1st October 2024Australia’s, and Queensland’s, agriculture sector has a bright future – if it can successfully confront and overcome a series of challenges, some of which are common to farmers everywhere, some of which are unique to Australia or Queensland. Saul’s presentation to AgForce Queensland’s annual Agriculture Industry Conference at the Brisbane Royal International Conention Centre on […]
‘Super for Housing’ – a Thoroughly Bad Idea
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy, Topics | 19th September 2024Saul’s analysis of the Liberal-National Coalition’s proposal to allow people to withdraw up to 40% of their superannnuation savings (up to a maximum of $100,000) in order to purchase a first home (subject to a requirement that the amount withdrawn be re-invested in superannuation when that home is sold), commissioned by the Super Members’ Council, published […]
What’s happening in the economy – nationally and in Tasmania
Economic Policies, Tasmania, The Australian Economy | 13th September 2024Saul’s presentation to the Governance Institute of Australia’s Tasmanian Governance Forum on 13th September 2024, providing some perspectives on recent developments in the Australian economy and the outlook for interest rates – and also the Tasmanian economy, the Independent Review of Tasmania’s State Finances and the 2024-25 Budget presented the day before.
All about inflation
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2024Saul Eslake: Australia’s recent inflation experience, what caused it, and how the Government and the Reserve Bank are responding to it