SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy


Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

The Importance of Productivity – and What to Do About It

Economic Policies, Productivity, The Australian Economy | 29th March 2025

Slides accompany talks to clients of The Bevington Group, a Melbourne-based management consulting firm specializing in operating model and process transformation, about the importance of productivity – and what might be done to arrest and reverse the slide in productivity growth in Australia.


The 2025-26 Federal Budget – An Assessment

Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 27th March 2025

Saul Eslake’s assessment of the 2025-26 Australian Government Budget, presented by Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers on 25th March 2025.


What might and might not be in the budget

Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 24th March 2025

Saul Eslake spoke with ABC-TV’s 7.30 Chief Political Correspondent Laura Tingle about what might and might not be in the 2025-26 Australian Federal Budget to be delivered on 25th March.


The Impact of President Trump’s ‘trade war’

Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy, US Economy Video | 18th March 2025

Saul Eslake spoke with ABC Radio 702 Sydney’s ‘Mornings’ Presenter Hamish McDonald about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s ‘trade war’ on the Australian and global economies, and the stock market.


Potential Risks in the Australian Share Market

Economic Policies, Economic Video, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 18th March 2025

Saul spoke to Sean Boss of Hot Copper, a website for retail investors, on 14th March about the potential risks for investors in the Australian share market, and how to manage them.


What could be in the Federal Budget 2025-2026?

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 12th March 2025

Saul Eslake talks to ABC Sydney’s ‘Mornings’ presenter Hamish McDonald about what could be in the Budget to be presented on 25th March, and the impact of the tariffs that Donald Trump is likely to impose on Australian exports of steel and aluminium to the US. And about Kylie Minogue.


The real meaning of last November’s US elections is becoming clearer – the American people voted for this

Australian Society and Politics, News, Security, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 9th March 2025

An article originally published on Pearls and Irritations (a blog curated by John Menadue), and by The New Daily on 9th February 2025 I am not suffering from what some of President Donald Trump’s more fervent supporters — both in the US and in Australia — like to call “Trump derangement syndrome”. That is, I’m not disputing that […]


Victoria’s economy and public finances

Australian Society and Politics, The Australian Economy | 5th March 2025

Victoria’s economy has begun to under-perform that of the rest of Australia, even though its population growth rate (which has under-pinned an above average ‘headline’ economic growth rate for most of the past two decades) is still above that of the rest of Australia. But measured in terms of either per capita gross product, or […]


SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


2025 election issues – a podcast with the hosts of SBS News’ “Party Time” hosts
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies
25th April 2025


Australia’s ‘housing crisis’ – and how (and why) both major political parties plan to make it worse
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview
19th April 2025


Housing Policies Could Push Up Prices
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview
17th April 2025


Housing policies in the 2025 election
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News
17th April 2025


Bad Housing Policy (yet again?)
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation
14th April 2025


There must be an election on – both major parties are proposing policies which will push up house prices
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Publications, Taxation
13th April 2025


Things that we should be (but won’t be) talking about during the current election campaign
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Productivity
11th April 2025


Trump’s Apparent Tariffs Backflip
Economic Policies, Globalization, Recent Media Interview, The Global Economy
10th April 2025


Trump’s Tariffs and China’s reaction
Economic Policies, Globalization, Recent Media Interview, The Global Economy, US Economy Video
10th April 2025


Tariffs, Global Economics, and the Future of Trade Policies
Economic Policies, Globalization, News, The Global Economy, US Economy Video
8th April 2025


Stocks bloodbath: Why investors no longer think Trump can make America great again
Economic Policies, News, The Global Economy
7th April 2025


Our World – Suddenly Not Like It Was – Part 1
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Video, Security
6th April 2025


The Importance of Productivity – and What to Do About It
Economic Policies, Productivity, The Australian Economy
29th March 2025


The 2025-26 Federal Budget – An Assessment
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
27th March 2025


What might and might not be in the budget
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
24th March 2025


NEWS

TV, Radio & Print Media


Australia’s ‘housing crisis’ – and how (and why) both major political parties plan to make it worse
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview | 19th April 2025

Housing Policies Could Push Up Prices
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview | 17th April 2025

Housing policies in the 2025 election
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News | 17th April 2025

Bad Housing Policy (yet again?)
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation | 14th April 2025

Tariffs, Global Economics, and the Future of Trade Policies
Economic Policies, Globalization, News, The Global Economy, US Economy Video | 8th April 2025

Stocks bloodbath: Why investors no longer think Trump can make America great again
Economic Policies, News, The Global Economy | 7th April 2025

What might and might not be in the budget
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 24th March 2025

Victoria joins the ranks of so-called ‘mendicant’ states
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News | 16th March 2025

The impact of Trump’s tariff and other policies
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Global Economy, US Economy Video | 13th March 2025

What could be in the Federal Budget 2025-2026?
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 12th March 2025

The real meaning of last November’s US elections is becoming clearer – the American people voted for this
Australian Society and Politics, News, Security, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 9th March 2025

Werribee voters send messages to both major Victorian political parties
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News | 9th March 2025

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VIDEO

Most Recent Multimedia


TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


Australian Minister for Housing, the Hon. Clare O'Neill MP on ABC Q&A, September 2024

“We are lucky as a State to have an economist of your calibre willing to readily make yourself available to give us a clea r perception of where we are at and the direction we need to go for a better future”
Diplomatic Representative, August 2024

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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LINKS

Useful Links


Below is a list of links I’ve found useful under the following broad topics

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