The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
Potential Risks in the Australian Share Market
Economic Policies, Economic Video, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 18th March 2025Saul spoke to Sean Boss of Hot Copper, a website for retail investors, on 14th March about the potential risks for investors in the Australian share market, and how to manage them.
What could be in the Federal Budget 2025-2026?
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 12th March 2025Saul Eslake talks to ABC Sydney’s ‘Mornings’ presenter Hamish McDonald about what could be in the Budget to be presented on 25th March, and the impact of the tariffs that Donald Trump is likely to impose on Australian exports of steel and aluminium to the US. And about Kylie Minogue.
The real meaning of last November’s US elections is becoming clearer – the American people voted for this
Australian Society and Politics, News, Security, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 9th March 2025An article originally published on Pearls and Irritations (a blog curated by John Menadue), and by The New Daily on 9th February 2025 I am not suffering from what some of President Donald Trump’s more fervent supporters — both in the US and in Australia — like to call “Trump derangement syndrome”. That is, I’m not disputing that […]
Victoria’s economy and public finances
Australian Society and Politics, The Australian Economy | 5th March 2025Victoria’s economy has begun to under-perform that of the rest of Australia, even though its population growth rate (which has under-pinned an above average ‘headline’ economic growth rate for most of the past two decades) is still above that of the rest of Australia. But measured in terms of either per capita gross product, or […]
Potential ‘Black Swan’ Events
Economic Video, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 27th February 2025Saul Eslake talks with LinkedIn’s Finance Editor Misa Han about potential ‘black swan’ events for financial markets in 2025 – including a possible melt-down in crypto-currencies, ongoing increases in bond yields, outbreaks of military conflicts and escalating trade tensions. Yes, there are also things to be optimistic about – but markets seem to have ‘price those in’, whilst giving much less weight to potential negative shocks.
Share Market Risks
Economic Video, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 27th February 2025Saul talks with LinkedIn Finance Editor Misa Han about some of the potential risks facing share market investors this year, including rising bond yields, stretched valuations, disappointments with realizing the potential of AI (or in identifying ‘winners’ and ‘losers’), and ‘contagion risks’ in the event of a melt-down in crypto-currencies’.
Interest Rate Outlook 2025
Economic Video, The Australian Economy | 12th February 2025Saul Eslake talked to LinkedIn News Australia’s Misa Han about Interest Rate Outlook 2025
Widening the Gap – An Intergenerational Lens on Wealth Inequality in Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy | 12th December 2024Wealth is inevitably more unequally distributed than income. And inequality in the distribution of wealth has increased more than inequality in the distribution of income in Australia (as in many other countries) over the past two decades or so. But what’s particularly striking, at least in Australia, is how inequality in the distribution of wealth […]