The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
All about inflation
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2024Saul Eslake: Australia’s recent inflation experience, what caused it, and how the Government and the Reserve Bank are responding to it
Inflation and the prospects for cuts in Australian interest rates
News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 30th August 2024Saul Eslake talks to Turkish TV station TRT World about Australia’s experience in combatting inflation and the prospects for cuts in Australian interest rates – not this year.
‘Price-gouging’ and ‘profiteering’ haven’t been major contributors to Australian inflation
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 26th August 2024Saul Eslake: Notwithstanding assertions from both the left and right of the Australian political spectrum, ‘price-gouging’ and ‘profiteering’ have not been significant contributors to the high inflation which Australia has experienced over the past three years.
A ‘security blanket’ for Australian manufacturing
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Security, The Australian Economy | 26th August 2024Saul Eslake: The Albanese Government’s signature ‘Future Made in Australia’ has a good part, which is about the transition to net zero, and a not-so-good part, which reeks of ‘manufacturing fetishism’ and an obsession with ‘security’ at the expense of other objectives.
Australian Financial Review magazine feature on ‘The Worst (Australian) Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century Thus Far’
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 24th July 2024The July 2024 edition of the Australian Financial Review‘s monthly magazine includes a feature article by Myriam Robin, editor of the ‘Rear Window’ column, on my ‘one-man mission’ (as she calls it) to undo what I’ve called ‘the Worst Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century Thus Far’, namely, the ‘deal’ (originally ‘done by the Morrison […]
‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 22nd June 2024Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.
Other central banks are cutting rates, why isnt the RBA?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 13th June 2024Saul spoke with ABC Radio Sydney’s “Mornings” Presenter Hamish MacDonald about why the Reserve Bank is unlikely to follow the Bank of Canada or the European Central Bank in cutting interest rates any time soon, and also about the possible consequences of Australia ‘walking away’ from the emissions reduction targets to which it committed under the Paris Climate Accords.
Interest Rate and Inflation – Where to now?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 8th June 2024Saul Eslake’s podcast of a wide-ranging discussion about inflation, interest rates and other economic topics with Ben Law, the “Financial Bloke” and host of The Agri Coach “Wealth and Wisdom podcast”. This discussion was published on 8th June but recorded on 11th April – so it predates the most recent Federal Budget, the latest unemployment figures from Australia and the US (both of which now have a 4 handle on them, and the interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank in the first week of June.