The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 22nd June 2024Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.
Other central banks are cutting rates, why isnt the RBA?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 13th June 2024Saul spoke with ABC Radio Sydney’s “Mornings” Presenter Hamish MacDonald about why the Reserve Bank is unlikely to follow the Bank of Canada or the European Central Bank in cutting interest rates any time soon, and also about the possible consequences of Australia ‘walking away’ from the emissions reduction targets to which it committed under the Paris Climate Accords.
Interest Rate and Inflation – Where to now?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 8th June 2024Saul Eslake’s podcast of a wide-ranging discussion about inflation, interest rates and other economic topics with Ben Law, the “Financial Bloke” and host of The Agri Coach “Wealth and Wisdom podcast”. This discussion was published on 8th June but recorded on 11th April – so it predates the most recent Federal Budget, the latest unemployment figures from Australia and the US (both of which now have a 4 handle on them, and the interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank in the first week of June.
The pros and cons of cutting immigration
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 7th June 2024In the first week of June 2024, Saul Eslake spoke with the host of the ABC’s “News Daily” podcast, Samantha Hawley, about the pros and cons of proposals which have been made by both the Labor Government and the Liberal-National Opposition to cut Australia’s immigration intake (the latter by a lot more than the former).
A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 16th May 2024On 15th May, I joined Professors Peter Robinson and Peter Van Onselen of the University of Western Australia for a discussion about the 2024-25 Federal Budget presented the previous day. A podcast of that conversation is here: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/peter-van-onselen/episodes/Analysing-the-budget-e2jngdd
The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 15th May 2024Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers presented his third budget to the Australian Parliament on Tuesday 14th May. Here’s my assessment – there are some things to like about it (such as the cost-of-living relief), and some things to be skeptical about (such as many, though not all, of the things being funded under the ‘Future Made […]
Upcoming Federal Budget with Laura Jayes
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 13th May 2024I was interviewed by Sky News Australia’s Laura Jayes about the upcoming 2024-25 Federal Budget and its potential impact (upwards and donwnwards) in inflation, and about the perversion of the system for distributing revenue from Australia’s GST to the states and territories at the behest of Australia’s richest state, Western Australia. The interview can be […]
Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 11th May 2024Fellow independent economist Nikki Hutley and I were interviewed by the ABC’s Fran Kelly for her Saturday Extra program on 11th May about expectations for the 2024-25 Federal Budget to be presented by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on the evening of Tuesday 14th May. Here’s a link to a recording of the segment: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/saturdayextra/budget-panel/103832416