Jessica Irvine, senior economics columnist with the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers, discusses Saul’s views on the meaning of the term ‘recession’ and whether Australia is once again in one now

A recession is commonly defined as two or more quarters of negative growth in real GDP. But that’s a silly rule – and it isn’t used in the US, where the body which officially delineates recessions last month said that the 2020 recession lasted just two months. If the bushfires of late 2019 and early […]

The 2021 IGR, released some six weeks ago, suggests that Australia will be running budget deficits for the next 40 years. But that’s only because of the quite arbitrary assumption that tax collections will remain ‘capped’ at 23.9% of GDP, forever more. There’s no reason why that should be the case.

Virtual presentation to the Australian Performing Arts Market ‘Gathering’ on 12th August 2021, looking at trends in (and consequences) of international mobility of goods and services, capital and people, both pre- and post-Covid, and the consequences of Covid for the performing arts. Scroll down to view the recording.

A submission to the Senate Select Committee on Job Security, examining the difference between the unemployment rate as published (in accordance with long-standing international statistical conventions) by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and alternative measures which take account of some of the ways in which Covid-19 (and the restrictions imposed in response to it) have […]

Podcast of a discussion with Janet Ge, Associate Professor in the School of Built Environment at University of Technology, Sydney and Matt Grudnoff of the Australia Institute, a think tank, hosted by Toby Hemmings of Think: Business Futures, focussing on the consequences of and reasons for the continued escalation of Australian residential property prices. 

Talk to the Sydney Institute, 3rd August 2021. The margin by which Australia’s economic growth rate has exceeded the average for all ‘advanced’ economies over the past two decades is almost entirely attributable to Australia’s immigration program. But that’s not the criterion against which it should be judged. Australia’s immigration program has made a small […]

Saul talks to Alan Kohler about this week’s June quarter CPI result and the implications of Australia’s vaccination strategy for our economic performance.