SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy


Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

This is a recession – we’re just not calling it one

Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 9th September 2021

Op-ed published in the Australian Financial Review of 9th August 2021 –  arguing (1) that we are in a recession now, irrespective of whether we have two consecutive quarterly contractions in real GDP, and (2) that although it shares some of the ‘responsibility’ for this second recession, the federal government’s fiscal policy response to it […]


Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’

Publications, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2021

Jessica Irvine, senior economics columnist with the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers, discusses Saul’s views on the meaning of the term ‘recession’ and whether Australia is once again in one now


Is Australia having a Second Recession?

Australian Society and Politics, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16th August 2021

A recession is commonly defined as two or more quarters of negative growth in real GDP. But that’s a silly rule – and it isn’t used in the US, where the body which officially delineates recessions last month said that the 2020 recession lasted just two months. If the bushfires of late 2019 and early […]


Reflections on the 2021 Intergenerational Report

Economic Policies, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 15th August 2021

The 2021 IGR, released some six weeks ago, suggests that Australia will be running budget deficits for the next 40 years. But that’s only because of the quite arbitrary assumption that tax collections will remain ‘capped’ at 23.9% of GDP, forever more. There’s no reason why that should be the case.


The Economics of International Mobility

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Video, The Arts, The Australian Economy | 12th August 2021

Virtual presentation to the Australian Performing Arts Market ‘Gathering’ on 12th August 2021, looking at trends in (and consequences) of international mobility of goods and services, capital and people, both pre- and post-Covid, and the consequences of Covid for the performing arts. Scroll down to view the recording.


The effective rate of unemployment

Labour Market, The Australian Economy | 11th August 2021

A submission to the Senate Select Committee on Job Security, examining the difference between the unemployment rate as published (in accordance with long-standing international statistical conventions) by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and alternative measures which take account of some of the ways in which Covid-19 (and the restrictions imposed in response to it) have […]


Bursting the Housing Bubble

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy | 3rd August 2021

Podcast of a discussion with Janet Ge, Associate Professor in the School of Built Environment at University of Technology, Sydney and Matt Grudnoff of the Australia Institute, a think tank, hosted by Toby Hemmings of Think: Business Futures, focussing on the consequences of and reasons for the continued escalation of Australian residential property prices. 


The Economics of Immigration

Australian Society and Politics, News, The Australian Economy | 3rd August 2021

Talk to the Sydney Institute, 3rd August 2021. The margin by which Australia’s economic growth rate has exceeded the average for all ‘advanced’ economies over the past two decades is almost entirely attributable to Australia’s immigration program. But that’s not the criterion against which it should be judged. Australia’s immigration program has made a small […]


SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


Tasmania’s next government needs to have credible plans to return the budget to a cash surplus and reduce debt
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Tasmania
17th June 2025


The World and Australian Economies in a Nutshell – Presentation to 2025 All Actuaries Summit
Productivity, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy
12th June 2025


Inequality in the Distribution of Wealth – An Inter-Generational Perspective
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Taxation
5th June 2025


Tasmanian Government Privatisation Assessment – ‘Stage One’ Report
Economic Policies, Tasmania, Topics
1st June 2025


Tasmania’s 2025-26 State Budget puts the main task off to another day
Economic Policies, Tasmania
29th May 2025


Is the United States about to step over a dangerous financial precipice?
Economic Policies, News, The Global Economy
24th May 2025


Government’s proposal to increase the tax on superannuation
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation
22nd May 2025


The funding of greyhound racing in Tasmania
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Tasmania
22nd May 2025


Victoria’s profligacy is a problem for all of us
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
20th May 2025


An inter-generational perspective on wealth inequality in Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Video, Housing, Taxation
16th May 2025


Labor should use its second victory as a platform for ambitious reform
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News
5th May 2025


Global turmoil, tariffs and impacts on the Australian economy
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy, Topics
30th April 2025


The two worrying trends revealed in Australia’s AAA warning
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
30th April 2025


Australia’s Federal Election 2025 Key Issues
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Productivity, Recent Media Interview, Taxation, The Australian Economy
27th April 2025


2025 election issues – a podcast with the hosts of SBS News’ “Party Time”
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
25th April 2025


NEWS

TV, Radio & Print Media


Is the United States about to step over a dangerous financial precipice?
Economic Policies, News, The Global Economy | 24th May 2025

Government’s proposal to increase the tax on superannuation
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation | 22nd May 2025

Victoria’s profligacy is a problem for all of us
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 20th May 2025

Labor should use its second victory as a platform for ambitious reform
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News | 5th May 2025

The two worrying trends revealed in Australia’s AAA warning
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 30th April 2025

Australia’s ‘housing crisis’ – and how (and why) both major political parties plan to make it worse
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview | 19th April 2025

Housing Policies Could Push Up Prices
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview | 17th April 2025

Housing policies in the 2025 election
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News | 17th April 2025

Bad Housing Policy (yet again?)
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation | 14th April 2025

There must be an election on – both major parties are proposing policies which will push up house prices
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Publications, Taxation | 13th April 2025

Tariffs, Global Economics, and the Future of Trade Policies
Economic Policies, Globalization, News, The Global Economy, US Economy Video | 8th April 2025

Stocks bloodbath: Why investors no longer think Trump can make America great again
Economic Policies, News, The Global Economy | 7th April 2025

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VIDEO

Most Recent Multimedia


TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


Australian Minister for Housing, the Hon. Clare O'Neill MP on ABC Q&A, September 2024

“We are lucky as a State to have an economist of your calibre willing to readily make yourself available to give us a clea r perception of where we are at and the direction we need to go for a better future”
Diplomatic Representative, August 2024

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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LINKS

Useful Links


Below is a list of links I’ve found useful under the following broad topics

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