‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, speaker, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy

Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

Tasmania Talk: Australian Federal Budget 2021-2022

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Tasmania, The Australian Economy | 12th May 2021

Saul talks to Tasmania Talk’s Mike O’Loughlin about Australian Federal Budget 2021-2022

Our closed borders have turbo-charged the economy’s recovery

Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 7th May 2021

An article in the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers on 8th May 2021 by Economics Editor Ross Gittins about the under-recognized stimulatory impact of Australia’s border closures in response to Covid-19, which draws extensively on my Financial Review op-ed of 8th April

The Future of Work

Labour Market, The Australian Economy | 4th May 2021

Talk to a conference on “The Future of Work” hosted by ISPT (an industry superannuation funds property trust) in Canberra on 4th May 2021, which looks at the prospects for, and implications of, an increase in the proportion of employees “working from home” in the aftermath of Covid-19

The right and proper thing to do | Inside Story

Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 30th April 2021

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg makes the ‘right call’ on fiscal policy, 12 days out from the 2021-22 Federal Budget

The implications of Covid-induced changes in patterns of work for property markets

News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 13th April 2021

Op-ed piece in the Australian Financial Review for 13th April 2021 looking at some of the implications of Covid-induced changes in patterns of work for property markets

The Australian economy’s recovery from the corona-recession, and implications for interest rates

Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 8th April 2021

Saul talks to the Eureka Report’s Alan Kohler about Australia’s better-than-expected recovery from the “corona-recession”, which in turn reflects Australia’s relatively good performance in keeping the virus ‘at bay’ and the larger-than-average volume of fiscal support provided by the Australian Government. He explains how the closure of Australia’s borders to migrants (as well as tourists […]

Rebound in growth could force RBA’s hand on rates

Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 8th April 2021

Feature article published in the Australian Financial Review on 7th April, looking at Australia’s emergence from the recession induced by Covid-19, and the implications for the future course of fiscal and monetary policy

Conversation with the Archbishop

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, Taxation, The Australian Economy, Video | 27th March 2021

Saul participated in a ‘Conversation with the Archbishop’, hosted by the Anglican Archbishop of Melbourne, Dr Philip Freier, in Melbourne’s Federation Square along with CEO of Anglicare Kasy Chambers, on Tuesday 23rd March 2021, about Australia’s response to Covid-19 and how the ‘new normal’ could be different from the old one.


Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness

Saul Eslake online presentation

“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast

“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia

“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies

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Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations

A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
16th May 2024

The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
15th May 2024

Australian Federal Budget, Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
13th May 2024

Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
11th May 2024

The WA GST deal – the worst public policy decision of the 21st century thus far – Address to the National Press Club
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies
8th May 2024

The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy
25th April 2024

‘A distinctive part of life in Australia’ The Declining Dream of Homeownership
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
17th April 2024

Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics
16th April 2024

“The Great Housing Disaster – Who’s to Blame?”
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Recent Media Interview, Topics
15th April 2024

The Economic Consequences of Surges in Immigration
Australian Society and Politics, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy, Topics
10th April 2024

Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy
4th April 2024

The next four years will be difficult for Tasmania
News, Tasmania
27th March 2024

Some initial reflections on the outcome of the 2024 Tasmanian State election
Australian Society and Politics, Tasmania
24th March 2024

Tasmania’s fiscal position
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, Tasmania
24th March 2024

Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy
13th March 2024


Recent Presentations

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What Others Say

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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