‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, speaker, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy

Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

‘Minding the store’? Or ‘building a bigger and better store’?

Economic Policies, Tasmania, The Australian Economy | 3rd December 2021

Saul’s presentation to the Economic Society of Australia’s annual Tasmanian Economic Forum in Hobart on 3rd December. Tasmania’s economic performance has improved considerably in recent years – and the current state government is entitled to claim some of the credit for that. It’s done a good job of ‘minding the store’ since being elected in […]

‘The Next Big Risk: Insights on the Economic and Financial Outlook

The Australian Economy | 28th October 2021

Presentation to the Institute of Internal Auditors’ Audit & Risk Committee Forum, 28th October 2021

Inflation in Australia

News, The Australian Economy | 27th October 2021

Interview with The Australian’s Business Editor-at-Large Ticky Fullerton published here on 27th October – just before the release of the September quarter CPI data. Although that number was in line with what I’d told Ticky that was expected, the ‘underlying’ inflation number was a bit stronger than expected, pushing the annual ‘underlying’ inflation rate into […]


News, The Australian Economy | 27th October 2021

‘Stagflation’ is the simultaneous occurrence of persistently high unemployment with persistently high inflation, which many economies (including Australia’s) experienced in the second half of the 1970s and for part of the 1980s. Some economists fear it might be re-emerging now. I talk to ABC Business Reporter Gareth Hutchins about this possibility here.

September employment data show ‘effective’ unemployment rate at 10.6%

News, The Australian Economy | 14th October 2021

Saul was interviewed by Sky News about the Septembfer labour orce report released on 14th October Australia could see a ‘net rebound’ in employment come November | Sky News Australia

Old wine in new bottles: more ‘rent-seeking’ from South Australian manufacturing interests

Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 17th September 2021

There’s a new lobby group pleading for preferential treatment for manufacturing in the name of ensuring ‘sovereignty’, a word of which the present Federal Government is especially fond. But it boils down to the same old rent-seeking that has been a feature of Australian manufacturing policy for most of the past 120 years. (Full text […]

Housing Grants: more harm than good

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 15th September 2021

Saul talks to Tasmania Talks’ Mike O’loughlin on 14th September, 2021 about housing affordability crisis 


Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness

Saul Eslake online presentation

“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast

“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia

“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies

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Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations

The Tasmanian Economy
29th February 2024

The worst public policy decision of the 21st Century
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
20th February 2024

Is ‘price gouging’ a major contributor to inflation?
Recent Media Interview
19th February 2024

The massive $50bn GST revenue distribution blow out (with Andy Park)
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
14th February 2024

The massive $50bn GST revenue distribution blow out (with Gary Adshead)
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
14th February 2024

Tasmania’s senior secondary education reform
Recent Media Interview, Tasmania
13th February 2024

Distribution of GST Revenue: the Worst Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century to date.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
4th February 2024

Insights on Asian Elections 2024 mentioned in The Economist
Asian Economies
30th January 2024

Alternatives to interest rates
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
29th January 2024

Reflections on ‘Australia Day’
Australian Society and Politics
26th January 2024

‘Stage 3’ tax cuts
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
25th January 2024

The proposed changes to the “stage 3 tax cuts”
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
24th January 2024

Don’t count your chickens when it comes to an RBA rate cut
Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
23rd January 2024

Have we passed ‘peak China’?
Asian Economies
23rd January 2024

Cost of Living and Housing Pressure
Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
22nd January 2024


Recent Presentations

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What Others Say

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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