SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy


Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

The 2022-2023 Australian Federal Budget

Australian Society and Politics, The Australian Economy | 30th March 2022

This year’s Federal Budget is, inevitably, a pre-election affair – given that an election has to be called no later than 18th April and held no later than 21st May. But, despite being blessed by substantial windfall revenue gains, this Budget isn’t as much of a ‘spendathon’ as some previous pre-election budgets have been. Some […]


Federal Budget 2022-2023 Preview with ABC PM’s David Lipson

Australian Federal Budget, Australian Society and Politics, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 28th March 2022

Saul previews Tuesday evening’s 2022-23 Federal budget with David Lipson of the ABC’s flagship evening radio current affairs program ‘PM’ 


Will the world’s mega economies create the mega decade?

The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 28th March 2022

Presentation to the Australian Investors’ Association 2022 National Conference on the Gold Coast, Queensland (spoiler alert: my answer is “no”).  


Economic Outlook for Australia’s ‘Growth Areas’

Australian Society and Politics, The Australian Economy | 21st March 2022

Presentation to the National Growth Areas’ Alliance National Congress, Werribee, Victoria, 21st March 2022 (the NGAA comprising 24 rapidly-growing local government areas in the outer suburbs of Australia’s five largest metropolitan areas)


The Reserve Bank’s balancing act on interest rates

News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 16th March 2022

Saul talks to Gareth Hutchens of the ABC’s ‘The Business’ program about the challenges posed for the RBA by rising energy and food prices


Presentation to the National Apprentice Employment Network’s Annual Conference – 16th March 2022

Labour Market, The Australian Economy | 16th March 2022

A ‘state of the nation’ presentation to the 2022 conference of the National Apprentice Employment Network, which represents and brings together Group Training Organizations who recruit, select and employ apprentices and trainees, and place them with host businesses.


Economic and Political Factors Affecting the Outlook for Australian Rail

The Australian Economy | 28th February 2022

Presentation to the Australasian Railway Association’s “AusRail Plus” Conference at the Sydney International Convention Centre on 28th February 2022.


Saul Eslake expects more petrol, super pain if war worsens

News, The Australian Economy | 25th February 2022

Saul talks to Sean Ford, Launceston’s The Examiner, 25th Feb 2022 FEBRUARY 25 2022 – 3:00PM Saul Eslake expects more petrol, super pain if war worsens Sean Ford Share prices and superannuation balances will fall further and oil prices rise again if the Russia-Ukraine conflict worsens, economist Saul Eslake expects. “The most obvious consequences seem to have […]


SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


Have we passed ‘peak China’? (and might a big fall in the RMB be on the horizon?)
Asian Economies, The Global Economy
11th July 2024


‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy
22nd June 2024


ATO’s Latest Taxation Statistics – June 2024
News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation
20th June 2024


Other central banks are cutting rates, why isnt the RBA?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
13th June 2024


Interest Rate and Inflation – Where to now?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
8th June 2024


The pros and cons of cutting immigration
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
7th June 2024


A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
16th May 2024


The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
15th May 2024


Upcoming Federal Budget with Laura Jayes
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
13th May 2024


Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
11th May 2024


The WA GST deal – the worst public policy decision of the 21st century thus far – Address to the National Press Club
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies
8th May 2024


The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy
25th April 2024


‘A distinctive part of life in Australia’ The Declining Dream of Homeownership
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
17th April 2024


Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics
16th April 2024


VIDEO

Recent Presentations


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TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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