The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
Inflation in AustraliaNews, The Australian Economy | 27th October 2021
Interview with The Australian’s Business Editor-at-Large Ticky Fullerton published here on 27th October – just before the release of the September quarter CPI data. Although that number was in line with what I’d told Ticky that was expected, the ‘underlying’ inflation number was a bit stronger than expected, pushing the annual ‘underlying’ inflation rate into […]
‘Stagflation’News, The Australian Economy | 27th October 2021
‘Stagflation’ is the simultaneous occurrence of persistently high unemployment with persistently high inflation, which many economies (including Australia’s) experienced in the second half of the 1970s and for part of the 1980s. Some economists fear it might be re-emerging now. I talk to ABC Business Reporter Gareth Hutchins about this possibility here.
September employment data show ‘effective’ unemployment rate at 10.6%News, The Australian Economy | 14th October 2021
Saul was interviewed by Sky News about the Septembfer labour orce report released on 14th October Australia could see a ‘net rebound’ in employment come November | Sky News Australia
Old wine in new bottles: more ‘rent-seeking’ from South Australian manufacturing interestsEconomic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 17th September 2021
There’s a new lobby group pleading for preferential treatment for manufacturing in the name of ensuring ‘sovereignty’, a word of which the present Federal Government is especially fond. But it boils down to the same old rent-seeking that has been a feature of Australian manufacturing policy for most of the past 120 years. (Full text […]
This is a recession – we’re just not calling it oneEconomic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 9th September 2021
Op-ed published in the Australian Financial Review of 9th August 2021 – arguing (1) that we are in a recession now, irrespective of whether we have two consecutive quarterly contractions in real GDP, and (2) that although it shares some of the ‘responsibility’ for this second recession, the federal government’s fiscal policy response to it […]
Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’Publications, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2021
Jessica Irvine, senior economics columnist with the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers, discusses Saul’s views on the meaning of the term ‘recession’ and whether Australia is once again in one now