The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
What is a ‘recession’, and can we see one coming?
The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 17th November 2023Danielle Wood, the Productivity Commission and the horizontal fiscal equalization (HFE)
Economic Policies, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 13th November 2023The changes to the way in which revenues from the GST are carved up among the states and territories imposed by the Morrison Government in 2019 (with the support of the then Labor Opposition) represent, IMHO, one of the worst pieces of public policy-making in Australia in at least 25 years. Among many other flaws, […]
RBA lifts interest rate by another 0.25% on 7th November 2023
Economic Video, Housing, News, The Australian Economy | 7th November 2023Saul speaks to the ABC’ Joe O’Brien about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to lift its cash rate by another 0.25 percentage points on 7th November.
Risky Business
The Australian Economy | 1st November 2023‘Risky Business’ – Presentation to the 2023 Meat Processing and Export Conference, 1st November 2023 In addition to the usual coverage of the global and Australian economies, the Australian Meat Industry Council asked me to identify the “three biggest risks” to Australia’s meat export industry.
Global and Australian Economic Outlook
The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 10th August 2023A presentation on the global and Australian economic outlook to a conference hosted by the Queensland Division of the Urban Development Institute of Australia in Brisbane on 10th August 2023.
Inflation Rate
Economic Video, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 30th March 2023Saul talks to Sky News Australia’s Ashleigh Gillon about the latest CPI on 30th March 2023
Some Reflections on Inflation, Economic Growth and on Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 11th August 2022Talk to the ACT Branch of the Economic Society of Australia, at Parliament House in Canberra, on 11th August 2022
The Risk of Recession
Economic Video, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 10th August 2022Saul talks to Eureka Report’s Alan Kohler about the risks of Australia’s economy falling into recession as interest rates rise here and abroad.