The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 16th May 2024On 15th May, I joined Professors Peter Robinson and Peter Van Onselen of the University of Western Australia for a discussion about the 2024-25 Federal Budget presented the previous day. A podcast of that conversation is here: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/peter-van-onselen/episodes/Analysing-the-budget-e2jngdd
The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 15th May 2024Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers presented his third budget to the Australian Parliament on Tuesday 14th May. Here’s my assessment – there are some things to like about it (such as the cost-of-living relief), and some things to be skeptical about (such as many, though not all, of the things being funded under the ‘Future Made […]
Upcoming Federal Budget with Laura Jayes
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 13th May 2024I was interviewed by Sky News Australia’s Laura Jayes about the upcoming 2024-25 Federal Budget and its potential impact (upwards and donwnwards) in inflation, and about the perversion of the system for distributing revenue from Australia’s GST to the states and territories at the behest of Australia’s richest state, Western Australia. The interview can be […]
Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 11th May 2024Fellow independent economist Nikki Hutley and I were interviewed by the ABC’s Fran Kelly for her Saturday Extra program on 11th May about expectations for the 2024-25 Federal Budget to be presented by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on the evening of Tuesday 14th May. Here’s a link to a recording of the segment: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/saturdayextra/budget-panel/103832416
The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy | 25th April 2024Along with my former ANZ colleague Cherelle Murphy (who’s now Chief Economist at EY in Australia) I appeared on ABC Radio National’s Breakfast Program (hosted by Patricia Karevelas) to discuss the implications of the higher-than-expected inflation readings for the March quarter on the outlook for interest rates and the upcoming Federal Budget. https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/what-do-the-latest-inflation-numbers-mean-/103765828
Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 13th March 2024Talk to a gathering of parliamentarians, business leaders and others from the UK and Australia, in Melbourne, on Wednesday 13th March 2024 PRODUCTIVITY, TAX REFORM & ‘PEAK CHINA’ TALK TO COOK SOCIETY, 13th MARCH 2024 by Saul Eslake Principal, Corinna Economic Advisory Download PDF version Productivity Productivity – what we get by way of […]
Distribution of GST Revenue: the Worst Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century to date.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 4th February 2024Saul Eslake: An essay about the consequences of the Morrison Government’s decision (supported by the then Labor Opposition and continued, indeed extended, by the current Albanese Labor Government) to change the way in which the revenue from the GST is carved up among Australia’s states and territories, at the behest of Australia’s richest state, Western Australia.