The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy | 25th April 2024Along with my former ANZ colleague Cherelle Murphy (who’s now Chief Economist at EY in Australia) I appeared on ABC Radio National’s Breakfast Program (hosted by Patricia Karevelas) to discuss the implications of the higher-than-expected inflation readings for the March quarter on the outlook for interest rates and the upcoming Federal Budget. https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/what-do-the-latest-inflation-numbers-mean-/103765828
Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 13th March 2024Talk to a gathering of parliamentarians, business leaders and others from the UK and Australia, in Melbourne, on Wednesday 13th March 2024 PRODUCTIVITY, TAX REFORM & ‘PEAK CHINA’ TALK TO COOK SOCIETY, 13th MARCH 2024 by Saul Eslake Principal, Corinna Economic Advisory Download PDF version Productivity Productivity – what we get by way of […]
Distribution of GST Revenue: the Worst Public Policy Decision of the 21st Century to date.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 4th February 2024Saul Eslake: An essay about the consequences of the Morrison Government’s decision (supported by the then Labor Opposition and continued, indeed extended, by the current Albanese Labor Government) to change the way in which the revenue from the GST is carved up among Australia’s states and territories, at the behest of Australia’s richest state, Western Australia.
Alternatives to interest rates
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 29th January 2024Saul Eslake: Some weeks ago, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC)’s Fiona Blackwood asked me to respond to a series of questions from listeners and viewers about possible alternatives to raising interestr ates as a way of tackling inflation. These were all very good questions, which deserved serious and thoughtful answers – which is what I hope I have provided here …
‘Stage 3’ tax cuts
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 25th January 2024Saul Eslake talks to ABC Radio Central Victoria’s Fiona Parker about the Government’s changes to the ‘Stage 3’ tax cuts originally legislated by the former Morrison Government, and what they might mean for different groups of taxpayers, and for inflation and interest rates.
The proposed changes to the “stage 3 tax cuts”
Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 24th January 2024Saul Eslake talks to the Seven Network’s “Sunrise” hosts Natalie Barr and Matt Shervington on 24 Jan 2024 about the Government’s proposed changes to the “stage 3 tax cuts” originally legislated by the Morrison Government back in 2019, and which the current government had previously promised to “deliver in full”.
Don’t count your chickens when it comes to an RBA rate cut
Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 23rd January 2024Saul Eslake talks to Ausbiz’ Danielle Ecuyer about the economic costs and benefits of immigration, the outlook for inflation and unemployment, and the prospects of RBA interest rate cuts in 2024.