SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, speaker, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy


Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

Inflation in Australia

News, The Australian Economy | 27th October 2021

Interview with The Australian’s Business Editor-at-Large Ticky Fullerton published here on 27th October – just before the release of the September quarter CPI data. Although that number was in line with what I’d told Ticky that was expected, the ‘underlying’ inflation number was a bit stronger than expected, pushing the annual ‘underlying’ inflation rate into […]


‘Stagflation’

News, The Australian Economy | 27th October 2021

‘Stagflation’ is the simultaneous occurrence of persistently high unemployment with persistently high inflation, which many economies (including Australia’s) experienced in the second half of the 1970s and for part of the 1980s. Some economists fear it might be re-emerging now. I talk to ABC Business Reporter Gareth Hutchins about this possibility here.


September employment data show ‘effective’ unemployment rate at 10.6%

News, The Australian Economy | 14th October 2021

Saul was interviewed by Sky News about the Septembfer labour orce report released on 14th October Australia could see a ‘net rebound’ in employment come November | Sky News Australia


Old wine in new bottles: more ‘rent-seeking’ from South Australian manufacturing interests

Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 17th September 2021

There’s a new lobby group pleading for preferential treatment for manufacturing in the name of ensuring ‘sovereignty’, a word of which the present Federal Government is especially fond. But it boils down to the same old rent-seeking that has been a feature of Australian manufacturing policy for most of the past 120 years. (Full text […]


Housing Grants: more harm than good

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 15th September 2021

Saul talks to Tasmania Talks’ Mike O’loughlin on 14th September, 2021 about housing affordability crisis 


Housing affordability crisis with Brooke Corte

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 14th September 2021

Saul talks to 2GB‘s Money News‘ Brooke Corte about housing affordabilty crisis


This is a recession – we’re just not calling it one

Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 9th September 2021

Op-ed published in the Australian Financial Review of 9th August 2021 –  arguing (1) that we are in a recession now, irrespective of whether we have two consecutive quarterly contractions in real GDP, and (2) that although it shares some of the ‘responsibility’ for this second recession, the federal government’s fiscal policy response to it […]


Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’

Publications, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2021

Jessica Irvine, senior economics columnist with the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers, discusses Saul’s views on the meaning of the term ‘recession’ and whether Australia is once again in one now


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“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
16th May 2024


The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
Topics
15th May 2024



Australian Federal Budget, Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
13th May 2024


Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
11th May 2024


The WA GST deal – the worst public policy decision of the 21st century thus far – Address to the National Press Club
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies
8th May 2024


The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy
25th April 2024


‘A distinctive part of life in Australia’ The Declining Dream of Homeownership
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
17th April 2024


Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics
16th April 2024


“The Great Housing Disaster – Who’s to Blame?”
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Recent Media Interview, Topics
15th April 2024


The Economic Consequences of Surges in Immigration
Australian Society and Politics, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy, Topics
10th April 2024


Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy
4th April 2024


The next four years will be difficult for Tasmania
News, Tasmania
27th March 2024


Some initial reflections on the outcome of the 2024 Tasmanian State election
Australian Society and Politics, Tasmania
24th March 2024


Tasmania’s fiscal position
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, Tasmania
24th March 2024


Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy
13th March 2024


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TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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