‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, speaker, company director
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian Economy

Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.

Is Australia having a Second Recession?

Australian Society and Politics, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16th August 2021

A recession is commonly defined as two or more quarters of negative growth in real GDP. But that’s a silly rule – and it isn’t used in the US, where the body which officially delineates recessions last month said that the 2020 recession lasted just two months. If the bushfires of late 2019 and early […]

Reflections on the 2021 Intergenerational Report

Economic Policies, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 15th August 2021

The 2021 IGR, released some six weeks ago, suggests that Australia will be running budget deficits for the next 40 years. But that’s only because of the quite arbitrary assumption that tax collections will remain ‘capped’ at 23.9% of GDP, forever more. There’s no reason why that should be the case.

The Economics of International Mobility

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Video, The Arts, The Australian Economy | 12th August 2021

Virtual presentation to the Australian Performing Arts Market ‘Gathering’ on 12th August 2021, looking at trends in (and consequences) of international mobility of goods and services, capital and people, both pre- and post-Covid, and the consequences of Covid for the performing arts. Scroll down to view the recording.

The effective rate of unemployment

Labour Market, The Australian Economy | 11th August 2021

A submission to the Senate Select Committee on Job Security, examining the difference between the unemployment rate as published (in accordance with long-standing international statistical conventions) by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and alternative measures which take account of some of the ways in which Covid-19 (and the restrictions imposed in response to it) have […]

Bursting the Housing Bubble

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy | 3rd August 2021

Podcast of a discussion with Janet Ge, Associate Professor in the School of Built Environment at University of Technology, Sydney and Matt Grudnoff of the Australia Institute, a think tank, hosted by Toby Hemmings of Think: Business Futures, focussing on the consequences of and reasons for the continued escalation of Australian residential property prices. 

The Economics of Immigration

Australian Society and Politics, News, The Australian Economy | 3rd August 2021

Talk to the Sydney Institute, 3rd August 2021. The margin by which Australia’s economic growth rate has exceeded the average for all ‘advanced’ economies over the past two decades is almost entirely attributable to Australia’s immigration program. But that’s not the criterion against which it should be judged. Australia’s immigration program has made a small […]

June CPI and the implications of Australia’s vaccination strategy

Economic Policies, News, Publications, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 29th July 2021

Saul talks to Alan Kohler about this week’s June quarter CPI result and the implications of Australia’s vaccination strategy for our economic performance.

How is the immigration pause affecting Australia’s economy?

Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy | 22nd July 2021

Saul Eslake talks to ABC Radio National’s Peter Martin and Gigi Foster on their “The Economists” program 22nd July 2021


Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness

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ABC Radio National Breakfast

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Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia

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Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies

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Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations

A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
16th May 2024

The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
15th May 2024

Australian Federal Budget, Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview
13th May 2024

Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
11th May 2024

The WA GST deal – the worst public policy decision of the 21st century thus far – Address to the National Press Club
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies
8th May 2024

The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy
25th April 2024

‘A distinctive part of life in Australia’ The Declining Dream of Homeownership
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
17th April 2024

Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics
16th April 2024

“The Great Housing Disaster – Who’s to Blame?”
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Recent Media Interview, Topics
15th April 2024

The Economic Consequences of Surges in Immigration
Australian Society and Politics, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy, Topics
10th April 2024

Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy
4th April 2024

The next four years will be difficult for Tasmania
News, Tasmania
27th March 2024

Some initial reflections on the outcome of the 2024 Tasmanian State election
Australian Society and Politics, Tasmania
24th March 2024

Tasmania’s fiscal position
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, Tasmania
24th March 2024

Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy
13th March 2024


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What Others Say

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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