The Australian Economy
Australia hasn’t had a recession – in the widely used sense of two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth – since 1991. Since then, Australia’s ranking among nations in terms of per capita GDP has risen from 22nd to, in the last four years, either 12th or 13th, behind only the United States, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other smaller states which are predominantly either oil producers or financial centres. Australia’s economic performance reflects a combination of luck and management – the relative importance and quality of which have varied significantly from time to time. Monitoring the performance of and analysing the prospects for the Australian economy has been the major part of my ‘day job’ since I completed my university degree in 1979.
Victoria’s economic performance over the past decade
Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 31st May 2021The Australian Financial Review’s newly-appointed Economics Editor John Kehoe had a front-page piece about the performance of Victoria’s economy, based in part on interviews with me, on 31st May 2021. Here is a set of charts illustrating the points I was making.
Protracted border closures are a new form of ‘protectionism’
Economic Policies, Publications, The Australian Economy | 30th May 2021Op-ed article published in The Australian Financial Review of 31st May (and available online online here) making the case that although the continued closure of Australia’s international borders is providing unheralded benefits to Australia’s economy (boosting spending and accelerating the decline in unemployment), much like the old forms of ‘protectionism’ in which we indulged for […]
The Future of Work – Sydney
Labour Market, The Australian Economy | 25th May 2021Talk to a conference on “The Future of Work” hosted by ISPT (an industry superannuation funds property trust) in Sydney on 26th May 2021, which looks at the prospects for, and implications of, an increase in the proportion of employees “working from home” in the aftermath of Covid-19
Alan Kohler refers to Saul’s assessment of 2021-2022 Australian Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 17th May 2021ABC The Kohler Report‘s Alan Kohler refers to my assessment of 2021-2022 Australian Federal Budget
Budget shock: Morrison government hit over the head by a paradigm
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy, Topics | 16th May 2021Sydney Morning Herald‘s Economic Editor Ross Gittins refers to my assessment of 2021-2022 Australian Federal Budget
‘No principle’ of public finance says ‘optimal level’ of government debt is zero
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 13th May 2021Saul talks to Sky News‘ Ashleigh Gillon about Australian Federal Budget 2021-2022
Eureka Report: Australian Federal Budget 2021-2022
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy | 13th May 2021Saul talks to Eureka Report‘s Alan Kohler about Australian Federal Budget 2021-2022
Video & Presentation Slides: Saul’s Assessment of 2021 – 2022 Australian Federal Budget
Australian Federal Budget, Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 12th May 2021Last year’s budget encapsulated a massive turnaround in the Morrison Government’s fiscal strategy, from one focussed on achieving and then maintaining budget surpluses and paying down with a view eventually to eliminating government net debt, to one focussed on supporting economic activity and employment in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, even though that meant […]
