The Global Economy
Australia may be an island continent, but it is no more immune to global economic influences than are other countries which share physical borders with their nearest neighbours. Australia is very much exposed to global swings in commodity prices, and to fluctuations in major advanced economies and (increasingly) to business cycles in key emerging economies such as China. Australia’s financial markets are increasingly integrated with the their global counterparts. And Australian economic policy-makers cannot ignore changes in monetary, fiscal and other economic policy settings in the world’s major economies. Hence, an awareness of trends in the global economy is an essential element of understanding Australian economic conditions.
Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics | 16th April 2024China has been running a ‘crawling peg’ exchange rate regime, similar to the one Australia had between January 1976 and December 1983, since 2015. Strictly speaking, a quasi-fixed FX regime like this requires some kind of relationship between a country’s domestic money supply and its FX reserves – although that isn’t really ‘binding’ if the […]
Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 4th April 2024Is #China heading for some kind of financial or #currency crisis? In the short term, no. But over the medium- to longer-term, the possibility of a sharp fall in the value of the #renminbi against other currencies, accompanied by large falls in the values of other Chinese assets, can’t be ruled out. China hasn’t been […]
What is a ‘recession’, and can we see one coming?
The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 17th November 2023Global and Australian Economic Outlook
The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 10th August 2023A presentation on the global and Australian economic outlook to a conference hosted by the Queensland Division of the Urban Development Institute of Australia in Brisbane on 10th August 2023.
Papua New Guinea in the World Economy
The Global Economy | 15th August 2022Presentation to the 2022 Papua New Guinea Investment Conference at the Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre on 15th August
Critics call for World Trade Organization reform
Globalization, Recent Media Interview, The Global Economy | 27th July 2022Saul Eslake talks to TRT-World about calls for reform of the World Trade Organization ahead of a meeting of its General Council in Geneva on 26th-27th July
The risks of recessions in Europe, the US and Australia
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 13th July 2022Saul talks to Alan Kohler about the risks of recessions in Europe, the US and Australia stemming from the combination of sharply higher energy prices and higher interest rates, 13th July 2022. And now, here’s Saul Eslake, independent economist. Well, Saul, is it even possible for Australia to have a recession with the labour […]