The Global Economy
Australia may be an island continent, but it is no more immune to global economic influences than are other countries which share physical borders with their nearest neighbours. Australia is very much exposed to global swings in commodity prices, and to fluctuations in major advanced economies and (increasingly) to business cycles in key emerging economies such as China. Australia’s financial markets are increasingly integrated with the their global counterparts. And Australian economic policy-makers cannot ignore changes in monetary, fiscal and other economic policy settings in the world’s major economies. Hence, an awareness of trends in the global economy is an essential element of understanding Australian economic conditions.
The impact of Trump’s tariff and other policies
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Global Economy, US Economy Video | 13th March 2025Saul Eslake spoke to the host of Cairns (far north Queensland) radio 4CA’s “Mornings” Presenter John McKenzie about the impact that US President Donald Trump’s tariff and other policies are having on the US and world economies, and the implications for Australia’s economy.
The real meaning of last November’s US elections is becoming clearer – the American people voted for this
Australian Society and Politics, News, Security, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 9th March 2025An article originally published on Pearls and Irritations (a blog curated by John Menadue), and by The New Daily on 9th February 2025 I am not suffering from what some of President Donald Trump’s more fervent supporters — both in the US and in Australia — like to call “Trump derangement syndrome”. That is, I’m not disputing that […]
Potential ‘Black Swan’ Events
Economic Video, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 27th February 2025Saul Eslake talks with LinkedIn’s Finance Editor Misa Han about potential ‘black swan’ events for financial markets in 2025 – including a possible melt-down in crypto-currencies, ongoing increases in bond yields, outbreaks of military conflicts and escalating trade tensions. Yes, there are also things to be optimistic about – but markets seem to have ‘price those in’, whilst giving much less weight to potential negative shocks.
Share Market Risks
Economic Video, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 27th February 2025Saul talks with LinkedIn Finance Editor Misa Han about some of the potential risks facing share market investors this year, including rising bond yields, stretched valuations, disappointments with realizing the potential of AI (or in identifying ‘winners’ and ‘losers’), and ‘contagion risks’ in the event of a melt-down in crypto-currencies’.
The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump
Economic Policies, The Global Economy | 29th January 2025A presentation to my colleagues in Independent Economics (Home – Independent Economics) about the likely economic consequences (including for inflation and economic growth) of Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and trade, immigration and deportations, taxes and the US budget, and the independence of the US’ central bank, the Federal Reserve.
Elections and economies – the US and Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 23rd November 2024Donald Trump’s clear (although not overhelming) victory in November’s US Presidential election, combined with the Republicans’ capture of both Houses of the US Congress, puts him in a strong position to implement his agenda. The combination of swingeing increases in tariffs, the deportation of between 1.3 and 8 million migrant workers, a futher increase in […]
Have we passed ‘peak China’? (and might a big fall in the RMB be on the horizon?)
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 11th July 2024Saul Eslake: China is ceasing to be a major locomotive for global economic growth, thanks to a combination of inexorable demographic factors and policy inertia. Additionally, a large fall in its currency could be on the horizon.
‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy | 22nd June 2024Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.