The Global Economy
Australia may be an island continent, but it is no more immune to global economic influences than are other countries which share physical borders with their nearest neighbours. Australia is very much exposed to global swings in commodity prices, and to fluctuations in major advanced economies and (increasingly) to business cycles in key emerging economies such as China. Australia’s financial markets are increasingly integrated with the their global counterparts. And Australian economic policy-makers cannot ignore changes in monetary, fiscal and other economic policy settings in the world’s major economies. Hence, an awareness of trends in the global economy is an essential element of understanding Australian economic conditions.
Where does the ‘excess US stimulus’ show up – in higher inflation or a bigger current account deficit
Economic Policies, The Global Economy | 3rd June 2021A note co-authored with John Llewellyn of Llewellyn Consulting which asks where the ‘excess demand’ resulting from the extraordinary amount of policy stimulus now being applied to the US economy will show up – in inflation (which is where the financial markets and most pundits appear to be looking) or in the US balance of […]
Video & Presentation Slide: US Economy
The Global Economy, US Economy Video | 28th April 2021Presentation slide for US Economy webinar, 28th April 2021. The US now seems at last to be ‘getting on top’ of Covid 19, and its economy is now on the receiving end of a large volume of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus – Saul will look at the impact on US economic growth, inflation, the […]
US Economy: Part 3 A Huge Fiscal Stimulus
The Global Economy, US Economy Video, Video | 28th April 2021Presentation slide for US Economy webinar, 28th April 2021. The US now seems at last to be ‘getting on top’ of Covid 19, and its economy is now on the receiving end of a large volume of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus – Saul will look at the impact on US economic growth, inflation, the […]
US Economy: The risk of inflation
The Global Economy, US Economy Video, Video | 28th April 2021Presentation slide for US Economy webinar, 28th April 2021. The US now seems at last to be ‘getting on top’ of Covid 19, and its economy is now on the receiving end of a large volume of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus – Saul will look at the impact on US economic growth, inflation, the […]
US Economy: Part 5 The New Monetary Policy Paradigm
The Global Economy, US Economy Video, Video | 28th April 2021Presentation slide for US Economy webinar, 28th April 2021. The US now seems at last to be ‘getting on top’ of Covid 19, and its economy is now on the receiving end of a large volume of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus – Saul will look at the impact on US economic growth, inflation, the […]
US Economy: Part 6 The current account deficit
The Global Economy, US Economy Video, Video | 28th April 2021Presentation slide for US Economy webinar, 28th April 2021. The US now seems at last to be ‘getting on top’ of Covid 19, and its economy is now on the receiving end of a large volume of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus – Saul will look at the impact on US economic growth, inflation, the […]
The US economy
The Global Economy | 20th April 2021The US now seems at last to be ‘getting on top’ of Covid 19, and its economy is now on the receiving end of a large volume of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus – this presentation looks at the impact on US economic growth, inflation, the balance of payments, bond yields and the US dollar
China’s Economy
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 10th March 2021China’s was the only major economy to record positive growth in 2020. In this talk Saul will discuss the sustainability of the recovery that’s been under way since the second quarter of 2020, the medium-term risks associated with China’s high debt levels, banking system and exchange rate regime. He will also talk about prospects for […]